TWELVE
MILLION FOREIGN NATIONALS IN THE USA:
HOW MANY WILL STAY?
SYNOPSIS:
Immigration reform will establish new pathways to
citizenship
for large numbers of the citizens of other countries already settled in
the USA.
But no matter how liberal we become,
a certain segment of the unauthorized population
will return to the countries where they hold citizenship.
Such repatriation can be handled in organized and compassionate ways.
How shall we deal with the demographic shifts
that will result from returning some families to their homelands?
And how will American society by changed
when millions of foreign nationals come out of the shadows?
OUTLINE:
1.
GRADUAL REPATRIATION OVER A PERIOD OF YEARS
2.
LITTLE AMERICANS WILL SPRING UP ALL OVER THE WORLD
3.
IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT IN THE UNITED STATES
4.
THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF REPATRIATION FOR THE USA
5.
THE IMPACT ON FOREIGN NATIONALS
CONSIDERING ENTERING THE USA WITHOUT
PERMISSION
6.
BETTER BORDER ENFORCEMENT
7. NATIONAL IDENTITY FILE WITH PICTURES
OF ALL PERSONS WHO HAVE PERMISSION TO BE IN
THE USA
8. PATHWAYS TO CITIZENSHIP INSTEAD OF REPATRIATION
9.
PRIORITIZED REPATRIATION
10. DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT ON OTHER COUNTRIES
OF THESE RETURNING CITIZENS
11. EDUCATED GUESSES ABOUT THE NUMBERS
TWELVE
MILLION FOREIGN NATIONALS IN THE USA:
HOW MANY WILL STAY?
by James Leonard Park
The population of the United States of America is
about 309 million people.
About 12 million of these are citizens of other countries living in the
USA without permission.
And at any given time, there are hundreds of thousands of people
visiting the USA from
other countries,
with visas that give them permission to be here on vacation visits,
for education, employment, etc.
There are also about one million foreign nationals who have permission
to live here permanently.
Most of these will qualify for U.S. citizenship after living in America
for
five
years.
This essay will focus on the 12 million foreign
nationals
now settled within the borders of the USA without any legal
authorization.
Under present law, the United States has the right
to repatriate all of
these citizens to their home countries.
How many of these foreign nationals
will ultimately return to their homelands?
First we must register all
foreign nationals
and record the specific facts about their families.
Then new immigration laws will be created
to separate those who will be given pathways to U.S. citizenship
from those who will return to their homelands.
1. GRADUAL REPATRIATION OVER A PERIOD OF YEARS
Assuming that we will decide to repatriate at least
some of our foreign
nationals,
we can consider how this will effect our American society.
During the decade beginning in 2010,
we could gradually identity
and classify all of
the foreign nationals
living in the USA.
Those who are here with
permission are already registered with the
government.
They have green cards issued by the Department of Homeland Security.
These cards bear their names, pictures, & other data.
Our next step should be to create a database for
all of the other
citizens of other countries living within the USA without permission.
Once the individuals and their families have been
identified and registered,
we can proceed with the best possible treatment for these foreign
nationals
depending on the specific facts of each family group.
Those who have been living in the USA for the
longest time
have the deepest roots in American culture.
Many of these will be offered new pathways to U.S. citizenship.
As nation-wide registration becomes more complete,
some percentage of the citizens of other countries
will voluntarily
return to their homelands.
And immigration reform will decide exactly which other foreign nationals
will be required to
return to their countries of citizenship.
We will allow these individuals and families
reasonable time to wind-up their affairs in the USA
so that they can have an orderly move
back to their homelands.
If they have jobs, then their employers will be
informed that
others will have to be hired to replace them when they depart for
home.
For jobs that are difficult to fill, delays could be granted
so that the work of the company would not be disrupted.
The exact date of moving back home could be coordinated with
the date on which the replacement employee
will take over the job formerly held by a foreign national.
If the foreign nationals required to return to their
homelands own and operate businesses,
these businesses might have to be sold to people who have a legal right
to live in
the USA.
If such businesses cannot be sold as operating companies,
then their assets might have to be liquidated
by being sold piece-meal to others who want those assets.
In some cases, the businesses will continue with foreign ownership.
When any members of the families to be moved back to
their homelands
are attending school in the USA,
the date of the repatriation could take into account the school
calendar.
For example, perhaps the children would be permitted to complete
the current school year before they move back to their homeland.
When foreign nationals own homes in the USA,
these also might have to be sold to others who have a right to live in
the USA.
Sometimes this will cause a capital loss,
since they might not be able to sell the home for as much as they have
already paid to own it.
But that is the fate of every homeowner who is forced to sell within a
certain time-frame.
In some cases, it might be practical for the owners
to maintain their ownership of property in the USA
even after they have returned to their homelands.
Such homes could be leased to people who have a legal right to live in
the USA.
During the months of planning for repatriation,
the family can locate and purchase a new place to live in their
homeland.
If they are renters, they will find new places to rent in their home
country.
Perhaps they will first live with family members who have stayed in
their homelands.
Careful repatriation means helping families to put down deep roots
in the countries where they hold citizenship.
More details about
moving back to the countries of origin will be found here:
Comprehensive
Repatriation of Citizens of other Countries and their Families.
2. LITTLE AMERICANS WILL SPRING UP ALL OVER THE WORLD
Just as the USA now has enclaves of people with
roots in other lands
—Little
Italy, Little China, Little Vietnam, Little Mexico—
once this comprehensive repatriation begins,
it will not be surprising to see "Little Americas" emerging in other
lands.
These will be communities of people who have lived for some time in
the USA.
And because they know the American way of
life,
they might want to re-create some elements of their American experience
when they settle back into the countries where they are citizens.
If there are large numbers of people returning to a
particular country,
re-settlement services will be set up in the homelands,
providing temporary housing and services to help the returning
countrymen
to find new jobs, homes, & to make other social connections.
Immigration discussions in the United States always
notes
the wonderful things that immigrants have brought to the USA.
And clearly American culture has been greatly enriched by people born
elsewhere.
If citizens of other countries have learned how to operate within the
American economy,
they can probably use the same knowledge and skills
to enrich the countries where they hold citizenship.
They might do more good in
their homelands than they did in the USA.
And when such immigrants have learned the American
political system,
they might be less tolerant of political systems
that do not work
well in their home countries.
Such political knowledge and commitments
might have a very positive effect on countries
that have had political systems that are less democratic than the
USA.
Repatriation need not necessarily be seen as a
negative move.
We know that many Americans voluntarily
move to other countries each
year.
And those who are citizens of the USA can continue to be Americans if
they please.
The same would hold true for foreign nationals
required to return to their homelands:
They might have some American citizens in the family,
for instance children
born in the USA,
who will continue to be American citizens
even tho the whole family must return to the country where the parents
are citizens.
And when these children are old enough to live on their own,
American citizens always have a right to return to the USA.
3. IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT IN THE UNITED STATES
When a significant portion of the U.S. work-force
moves away,
this will make millions of jobs available for U.S. workers.
It will not solve all
of our unemployment problems.
But about one million people now looking for work
might to able to take over the jobs once held by foreign nationals
who have now returned to their homelands.
This change will also take place for a period of
years.
And some Americans who would never have thought of
working in a meat-packing plant,
in intensive-labor agriculture, in landscaping, & roofing
will find that these jobs suit them well.
Perhaps they will not earn as much as they were hoping for,
but at least they will be doing useful work
that does provide steady income.
And we should remember that some foreign nationals
also hold high-paid jobs in the USA.
They can transfer these high-paid skills back to their home countries.
And people who have a legal right to live in the USA
can take over these high-paid jobs.
When an employer knows that he or she
will be losing specific employees as of a certain date,
the process of looking for replacements can begin immediately.
And when foreign nationals are very difficult to replace,
they might be permitted to stay in the USA for a few more months
while replacements are located or trained to take over those jobs.
Citizens of other countries who will be returned to
their homelands
were consumers as
well as producers in
the USA.
So, if any new policy of comprehensive repatriation is effective,
the number of consumers living in the USA might also be somewhat
reduced.
Some products and services formerly sold to these departing foreign
nationals
will no longer be needed within the USA.
But, of course, these repatriated citizens will become
new consumers and producers in their homelands.
Employment is certain to be a factor in the coming
debate about immigration reform.
New laws will determine exactly which foreign nationals
must
return home.
And the numbers and time-frames for all such repatriations
will take into account the evolving employment situation in the United
States.
4. THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF REPATRIATION FOR THE USA
Because these changes will be scheduled over a
period of months and years,
most possible disruptions can be foreseen and dealt with appropriately.
If the repatriation takes place in large numbers,
everyone in the USA will begin to adjust to a slightly smaller
population.
All forms of permitted
immigration will continue, of course.
In fact, we might decide to double
the number of immigrants permitted to enter the USA each year.
This would increase authorized immigration to about one million persons
per year.
And the same
standards for selecting new immigrants
might be applied to foreign nationals already settled in the USA,
which would give them new pathways to
citizenship.
If this route is chosen,
then at least some of the demographic shifts will be offset
by the new
immigrants who were carefully selected to enter the USA.
We might, as a matter of public policy, decide to
keep the U.S. population about the same
by admitting as many new immigrants as we like
to replace the citizens of other countries who are returning to their
homelands.
Immigration policy
might be the beginning of a population
policy for the USA:
How many Americans do we want?
Should we increase or decrease our population?
Or should we keep the population increasing at its normal rate
by admitting new immigrants
to replace all those who return to
their homelands?
5. THE IMPACT ON FOREIGN NATIONALS
CONSIDERING ENTERING THE USA WITHOUT
PERMISSION
Once comprehensive repatriation begins and becomes
widely known,
and once nation-wide
registration of all foreign nationals is more complete,
some citizens of other countries who were thinking of coming to the USA
even without
permission will reconsider those plans.
They might personally know families who are being repatriated.
If friends and relatives are returning from the USA
because they were not permitted to become permanent residents,
this will discourage
others who thought that
moving to the USA even without permission would improve their lives.
Instead of planning to emigrate to the United States
without permission,
they can consider improving
their lives in the country where they are
citizens.
And if they still think they would have a good chance of being accepted
by the USA,
they can apply to emigrate while they continue to live and work in
their home countries.
If they make positive contributions to their homelands,
that will improve their chances of being accepted by America.
Some who apply for permission to move to the USA
will, in fact, be granted visas to emigrate.
For them, orderly and legal emigration will be a pathway to a new life
in the USA.
But most should prepare themselves to continue living in their home
countries.
Comprehensive repatriation will show that the United
States
has really become serious and effective in its efforts to enforce its
laws of immigration.
Foreign nationals will think twice before attempting to enter the USA
without permission.
6. BETTER BORDER ENFORCEMENT
Comprehensive repatriation would not apply to
foreign nationals
who are apprehended as
they attempt to enter the U.S. without permission.
Since they have no homes or businesses in the USA,
there are no material goods to sell or transfer
before they are returned to the countries where they hold citizenship.
The borders of the United States will continue to be
patrolled and protected
following the same policies and practices that have been used for many
years.
When new methods of controlling the borders are invented,
they will be put into effect.
And the fact that employers will
not be permitted to
hire citizens of other countries
who are living in the United States without permission
should remove one of the strongest motivations for economic migration.
7. NATIONAL IDENTITY FILE WITH PICTURES
OF ALL PERSONS WHO HAVE PERMISSION TO BE IN
THE USA
One new electronic development
that will make our borders less porous
is the creation of a national Identify File for all
residents of
the USA.
The first feature of such a new national facebook,
—which
will be widely available to all who have a need to see it—
would
be a recent picture
of each citizen,
permanent resident, &
registered visitor to the USA.
A temporary file will also be created for each
foreign national living in the USA.
At present each person who is granted a visa to visit the USA
has his or her picture included in that application.
And when foreign nationals living in the USA without permission
are
identified,
they will also have Files created for them in the National Identity
Bureau.
This assumes that we will end
the practice of automatic deportation
of citizens of other countries found in the USA without permission.
Temporary Files will be created even for these foreign nationals.
The computer of the National Identity Bureau
will have a picture of every man, woman, & child living in the USA.
Other facts will be added as appropriate.
This database can be used for immigration reform.
We cannot make wise policy if we do not know the facts.
All data in each File would be carefully
protected
to prevent
identity theft and other crimes related to false identity.
Thus, instead of checking identity cards or other
papers at the border,
the border control agents would check the picture in the National
Identity File
to see if the person attempting to cross the border really has such
authorization.
All forms of cards and papers can be falsified.
False documents for entering and residing in the United States
is already a multi-billion dollar industry.
But a simple File of pictures would undercut all such false documents.
Even at border-crossing-points where thousands of
people cross each day.
the picture in each person's National Identity File
could be compared with their actual face quickly and easily.
And each time a registered person enters or departs from the USA,
an electronic record of that border-crossing
would be added to that individual's Identity File.
This will quickly reveal the fraud if several different people are
crossing
pretending to be one individual in the National Identity Files.
As soon as the National Identity
Bureau is created,
everyone living in the USA without permission
will begin to consider the options open to them.
And people still living in other homelands
will re-consider any plans they had for entering the USA without
permission.
Even before the creation of a National Identity File for each person,
we can collect the pictures, names, & addresses
of all citizens of other countries living in the USA:
"Register
all Foreign Nationals: Carrots and Sticks":
http://www.tc.umn.edu/~parkx032/CY-REG.html.
8. PATHWAYS TO CITIZENSHIP
INSTEAD
OF REPATRIATION
Since the USA is in charge of its own immigration
policy,
we could create organized and rational pathways toward citizenship
for most of the foreign nationals now living within our
borders.
We could apply the same standards and tests
now used for deciding which citizens of other countries
are permitted to emigrate to the United States.
And the fact that they have already lived for some
years in the USA
should be taken into account.
If they have received a standard education within the USA,
then they are probably as
well equipped to become citizens
as the millions of people who were born in the USA
and who received a public education.
Whatever new pathways toward citizenship we create
will be reasonable and lawful.
We will have elaborate debate about each change
before it is passed by the U.S. Congress and signed by the President.
This will be in striking contrast to the present
fact of life:
Millions of people have come into the USA without any lawful
process.
They were not registered at the border.
Their presence in any location in America has been kept a secret
for fear that they might be sent back to their home countries.
If we register
all people presently living in the USA,
this will discourage further unauthorized immigration from other
countries.
Potential immigrants will know that they are likely to be discovered.
And if they have no valid reasons for remaining in the USA,
they will be taken back to their countries of origin.
All
options for immigration reform remain open.
Probably most foreign nationals will be given pathways to U.S.
citizenship.
And others will be returned to the countries where they are citizens.
9. PRIORITIZED REPATRIATION
Once
we create better records of just who is living in the USA,
we can begin organized and compassionate repatriation
following a set of priorities established by law.
Ineffective immigration controls have created the
present problems well known to all.
When immigration reform is enacted in the United States,
arbitrary deportations for minor paper-work problems will end.
We Americans will have to decide which foreign nationals
already
settled
in the USA
will be permitted to stay as permanent residents.
And most permanent residents will be offered pathways to citizenship.
However, it is almost certain that immigration
reform will include
continuing the process of sending
some foreign nationals
back to their homelands.
Since it would be impractical and unjust to send
every foreign national home,
how shall we set priorities
for which citizens of other countries to
repatriate first?
And which foreign nationals should be permitted to live in the USA a
few more years
while they apply for any new programs we create?
Under present law and practice, top priority for
repatriation has been given to
citizens of other countries who have committed crimes while
living in
the USA.
(Here we mean ordinary crimes, not immigration
violations.)
All crimes are dealt with first by the local police.
The persons who commit crimes are arrested, taken into custody,
put temporarily into jail, and taken thru each step of the
criminal-justice process.
Criminal laws apply to everyone, regardless of citizenship.
When it is discovered that the person who committed
the crime,
for which he or she was arrested, tried, convicted, & sentenced
is a citizen of another
country,
then the decision must be make about where the prison sentence will be
served.
Just returning a convicted criminal to his or her homeland does not
seem a wise
policy.
We should make certain that a particular foreign prison system
is willing and able
to accept this specific convict
before making arrangements for repatriation.
Keeping the convicted criminal in some American
prison system might be a better option
if his or her homeland cannot provide appropriate imprisonment.
Besides the special handling required for convicted
criminals,
care should be taken for each individual and family being returned
home.
Compassion means allowing foreign nationals time
to make new arrangements in their homelands:
Where will the family live?
What means of income will be possible?
A new system of careful and compassionate repatriation is described
here:
Comprehensive
Repatriation of Citizens of other Countries and their Families.
10. DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT ON OTHER
COUNTRIES
OF THESE RETURNING CITIZENS
When we propose to send thousands
of people
back to the countries where they hold citizenship,
we should take into account what
this shift of population
will do to the countries of origin to which these citizens will be
returned.
They will have plenty of time to think about such returning citizens
since it will take many months or even years to put these practices
into effect.
Most often people have left their native countries
because they could not make a good life for themselves at home.
And they hoped that they would have better chances in the USA,
even tho they knew that they would be immigrants without authorization,
subject to being returned to their countries of citizenship
whenever they were discovered.
Some of the countries of origin are already
overcrowded.
But the return of some additional thousands of citizens
should be an occasion for those countries to consider their population
policies.
Usually they have had no
population policies in effect at all.
When there were too many people in any given area,
they were expected to move to their cities or to the USA.
But new policies will have to be created
so that the citizens of any country will be able to live in peace and
harmony
within the territory of that country.
Japan offers an example of millions of people living
on a very limited amount of land.
Everyone knows that there is no more land to make Japan larger.
So they have been able informally to control their population
by the voluntary limitation of family size.
They do not have more children that they can take care of.
China offers a different kind of example.
China is mostly a rural country.
But they discovered several decades ago
that there would soon be far too many people
trying to live on the land mass of China.
So they put into place strict controls on the number of children
that each family can have: One.
This has kept the population of China within manageable limits.
China did not resort to sending its people to other
countries
because there was not enough room at home.
When the actual numbers are known,
then the countries where the foreign nationals hold citizenship
will be informed about the approximate numbers of their citizens
who will be returning each year.
These returning citizens should not be seen merely
as a burden on their
homelands.
Many of them will bring with them very useful skills and knowledge,
which will make these returning citizens meaningful contributors to
their homelands.
Immigration reform in the United States will
definitely have impacts on other countries.
But once the new patterns of repatriation and immigration are
established,
the other countries affected will take those facts into account.
What new world will emerge as we make immigration more reasonable?
11. EDUCATED GUESSES ABOUT THE NUMBERS
Of
the 12 million foreign nationals now settled in the USA without
authorization,
perhaps about 11 million
will be offered new pathways to U.S. citizenship.
It will be better for the USA and for these families
to allow these best candidates to become citizens of the United
States.
They can be allowed to stay here while they apply
for whatever new
pathways to citizenship we create.
One likely new pathway to citizenship is an expanded DREAM
Act,
which would provide a means by which children of foreign nationals
would be allowed to earn
citizenship by attending college
or spending two years in any branch of the U.S. military forces.
If enacted, an expanded DREAM Act could enable 1 or 2 million
children of foreign nationals to become U.S. citizens.
In June 2012, the U.S. Department of Homeland
Security announced
Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals:
Young foreign nationals who were brought without permissions into the
USA
while they were less than 16 years of age
will not be automatically deported when discovered.
Such DREAMers will be registered but not returned to their countries of
citizenship.
They will be given authorization to remain in the USA for two years at
a time.
And if they commit no crimes, such work-authorization can be renewed.
This might be the beginning of a more comprehensive program of
registration
without deportation.
Later, pathways to earned citizenship will probably
be created,
which could include, for example, the parents
of the children and young adults who are earning citizenship
using a finally-passed
DREAM Act
or some other new pathway to American citizenship.
Because the criteria for earned citizenship have not
yet been set,
foreign nationals who hope to become new Americans
should prepare themselves in several common-sense ways:
register with
the U.S. government as soon as this becomes possible,
keep working in legitimate employment, learn English, pursue education,
obey all laws, contribute to society, be creative, pay taxes, etc.
Here are some further ideas for pursuing citizenship:
"Ideal Immigrants: New Criteria for Selecting New Americans":
http://www.tc.umn.edu/~parkx032/CY-IDEAL.html.
"Earning American Citizenship: Be Above Average":
http://www.tc.umn.edu/~parkx032/CY-EARN.html.
Because immigration reform has not yet decided what to do with the millions in the middle,
no guesses will be ventured here.
The best of the foreign nationals will be offered pathways to
citizenship.
But some citizens of other countries will inevitably return to their
homelands.
Before we make any final determination,
we will probably create a complete database
of all foreign nationals settled in the USA.
Knowing the facts about these individuals and their families
will help the USA to decide exactly how to handle each specific
situation.
Which
foreign nationals should be permitted to live in the USA permanently?
Which
unauthorized immigrants should be offered pathways to earned
citizenship?
Which citizens of other countries should be returned to their homelands?
Whatever new pathways to U.S. citizenship we
create,
some foreign nationals will not
be able to qualify.
For example, some children and young adults who apply for the DREAM Act
will fall short of the minimum requirements.
The bottom
one million of the 12 million foreign nationals now settled in
the USA
will probably be returned to their homelands.
When one adult member of the family have been convinced of a serious
crime,
then the whole family might be repatriated to their homeland,
where the convinced criminal will serve his or her prison sentence.
This one million foreign nationals returning to
their homelands
will also include many thousands who voluntarily go home.
They know that they have little or no chance of being accepted
as permanent resident of the USA or becoming U.S. citizens.
Better systems of work
authorization will prevent them from supporting
themselves:
Jobs will be reserved for U.S. citizens and registered foreign
nationals.
If they lose their jobs, they will silently return to their homelands,
just as they secretly entered the USA without authorization.
How many will return to their homelands
without any official record that they ever lived in the United States?
After the first elements of immigration reform
become effective,
we will be able to make better guesses about the ultimate outcomes.
And we will be able to measure the impact of the first changes.
America will probably remain a welcoming nation,
but we will put some limits on the number of new people admitted each
year
—perhaps
in the range of one million authorized immigrants per year.
We will provide new pathways to citizenship
for several millions of the foreign nationals already settled in the
USA.
And more than one million foreign nationals
presently settled in the USA will return to their homelands.
AUTHOR:
James Park is himself an
immigrant to the United
States.
He was a child when his whole family was admitted to the USA.
So there was no way to know ahead of time what he might contribute.
But each family member has proven to be good for America.
Much more about James Park will be found on his website,
an Existential
Philosopher's Museum,
which now has more than 1,000 rooms.
Some of these rooms contain other essays about
immigration:
I am an
Immigrant
.
IMMIGRATION
REFORM:
Problems and Solutions:
Keeping the UU Debate Constructive .
IMMIGRATION
REFORM:
A Range of Options .
Earning
American Citizenship:
Be Above Average .
IDEAL
IMMIGRANTS:
New Criteria for Selecting New Americans .
Expanding the
DREAM Act:
New Pathways
to Citizenship .
Register all
Foreign Nationals:
Carrots and Sticks .
Registration
without Deportation:
Bringing
Millions of Foreign Nationals out of the Shadows .
Creating New
Pathways to American Citizenship .
If They Cannot
Work, They Will Not Come:
And Many Will Return to their Homelands .
Born in the USA:
The Easy Way to Become a U.S. Citizen
.
Comprehensive
Repatriation of Citizens of other Countries and their Families
.
National
Identity File:
Our National
Facebook .
Created
August 28, 2010; Revised 9-3-2010; 9-4-2010: 11-22-2010; 12-1-2010;
12-23-2010;
1-15-2011; 1-20-2011; 1-21-2011; 3-10-2011; 6-10-2011; 9-28-2011;
10-1-2011; 11-24-2011; 3-8-2012; 4-30-2012; 10-18-2012