Meteorology and medical reporting

  By Gary Schwitzer

(first published on www.mayoclinic.com on March 13, 2001)


Earlier this month, weather made news -- first for what was supposed to happen, and later, for what didn’t.  Television weather forecasters predicted that the Northeast would be buried by snow.  Schools closed, businesses shut down, airlines cancelled flights.  But when day one of the projected blizzard came and went with more drizzle than blizzard, other members of the media attacked their meteorological colleagues.  The New York Daily News interviewed embarrassed forecasters on the local and national media levels. Columnist Richard Huff wrote: 

 

“Weather Channel analyst Colin Marquis said the storm was

complex, which by nature increases the chance of error.

"I think, in general, the Weather Channel does a pretty

good job in tempering the hype," Marquis said. "[But]

there's that tendency to really hit it hard if we think

it's going to be a big deal. There's nothing wrong with

hype, if it happens. But hyping a storm that doesn't

happen, you end up with a little bit of egg on your face."

However, one local station insider admitted that there's

some hysteria built into all newscasts that may have misled

viewers. "It was embarrassing," the source said. "[But]

television news doesn't pull people into the show by saying

everything's okay."

 

Medical news is also complex, increasing the chance of error, and is subject to hype.  But medical news coverage doesn’t undergo the same tough scrutiny as weather news. 

 

During the same month as the fizzled blizzard of ‘01, medical researchers learned that a once highly-promoted experiment to treat Parkinson’s disease had failed to prove a benefit.  Worse, some who participated in the research suffered side effects which one researcher termed “tragic, catastrophic.”  Journalists had been writing about the potential of these fetal cell implants for Parkinson’s disease for more than a decade.  But when the sobering news was reported in the March 8, 2001 edition of the New England Journal of Medicine, some of these same media chose not to report the negative findings, or not to feature the news with the same flair and positioning as the earlier reports of optimism and potential. 

 

Drug news continues to be hyped by some media even before the Food and Drug Administration has approved a drug.  This same month there were favorable news reports of a drug being tested for chronic myelogenous leukemia.  The only thing that put this drug in the news at this time was that the drug’s manufacturer was going to request permission for early marketing approval.  This may be interesting news to company stockholders, but to people with this form of leukemia the news had no immediate nor even predictable impact on their lives. 

 

A respect for even recent history would help journalists and consumers recall promising news about the diabetes drug, Rezulin, and the irritable bowel syndrome drug, Lotronex, at similar stages of development.  Both were taken off the market not long after FDA approval because of dangerous side effects.  The leukemia drug in the news this month hadn’t yet even been approved by the FDA.   Eventually, it may well be proven to be a good treatment, but, as with the winter storm forecast, it’s best to avoid hype.  

 

There is value in an informed public discussion of the development of new therapies – even while they are still in development.  This discussion, however, should not be cluttered with promotion and marketing.  Too many questions need to be answered:  Why is there a need for a new therapy?  How is the new therapy supposed to work differently than others?  How long has it been studied? In how many people?  In how many mice?  What is known so far?  And finally – always a key question – what is not known?  Careful researchers and careful journalists always answer that last one. 

 

With weather forecasting, a botched forecast may only send people scampering for an umbrella, a snow blower, or a change in plans.  But with Parkinson’s disease, diabetes, irritable bowel syndrome, and leukemia, hype hurts people. 

 

This is not a new story: treatments aren’t truly treatments until they’re proven to treat people effectively and consistently without harming them. That’s why trials are done, and why they are done in stages. Does the experiment seem to work with its intended benefit?  Does the treatment work and is it safe?  Studies can’t be rushed.  Just because a drug company asks for early marketing approval doesn’t mean that patients should line up at their doctor’s office waiting for the new pill. 

 

Meteorologists who forecast storms that don’t develop, even though the forecast is based on sound scientific data, are ridiculed.  Sports reporters keep track of others’ weekly football predictions.  The media criticism magazine, Brill’s Content, publishes a political talk show “Pundit Scorecard,” tracking predictions made against what actually happens on Capitol Hill. But medical journalists who help promote new treatments before all the evidence is in rarely get a critical wrist slap.

 

Is health less important than weather, sports, or politics?


© 2002

Gary Schwitzer schwitz@umn.edu

 

 


Return to home page


The views and opinions expressed in this page are strictly those of the page author.
The contents of this page have not been reviewed or approved by the University of Minnesota.